期刊文献+

气象水文耦合的三峡水库入库水量预报研究 被引量:5

Study on forecast of inflow of Three Gorges Reservoir based on coupled meteorology and hydrology
下载PDF
导出
摘要 如何将水文气象紧密耦合,将未来5~7d多方案的降水预报结果转化为入库水量预报,对于三峡水库优化调度具有重要意义。利用长江上游6大分区2000~2006年所有洪水样本的日面降雨量资料和7个控制站点的日径流观测资料为分析样本,分析和评价了3种方案的适用性。结果表明:建立的场次降雨(P)+前期雨量(Pa)至场洪径流深(尺)关系(方案1)尽管相关置信度很高,但预报精度较差。建立的单日Pa+P至单日径流深(R)关系(方案2)相关关系可靠,但在逐日尺度上误差较大。通过单日Pa+P至单日径流深(R)关系滚动计算(方案3)具有较高的精度。2007~2008年场次洪水资料的独立检验表明,第3种方案能够满足系统对产水量预报的要求。通过将气象水文水量预报系统内方案3与多方案的降水预报结果耦合,能够直接为预报员提供未来5~7d不同降水预报方案下的入库水号。该系统目前已经授入运行。 The transformation of multi-scheme precipitation forecasting results in the following 5~7 days into reservoir inflow forecast based on meteorology and hydrology coupled method is of importance to the optimized operation of Three Gorges Reservoir.The feasibility of 3 schemes is analyzed and evaluated using daily area precipitation of all flood samples in 6 major regions of upper Yangtze River and daily runoff data of 7 control stations during 2000~2006.It is shown that scheme 1 has high correlation credibility but low forecasting accuracy;scheme 2 has satisfying correlation but large error in day-scale;and scheme 3 has higher accuracy.The independent tests of flood data during 2007~2008 proved that scheme 3 can meet the demand of the system in forecasting water yield.The reservoir inflow under different precipitation forecasting schemes in following 5~7 days can be provided directly by coupling forecasting results of scheme 3 and multi-scheme.The system is under operation now.
出处 《人民长江》 北大核心 2009年第24期29-33,共5页 Yangtze River
基金 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)资助项目(2007CB411502) 国家自然科学基金项目(40671041)
关键词 场洪径流深 气象预报 水量预报 三峡水库 flood runoff depth meteorology forecast water volume forecast Three Gorges Reservoir
  • 引文网络
  • 相关文献

参考文献21

二级参考文献55

共引文献146

同被引文献55

引证文献5

二级引证文献26

;
使用帮助 返回顶部