城市化、农业现代化与农民收入增加

Urbanization,Agricultural Modernization and Increase of Farmers’ Incomes

对中国1978-2008年城市化、农业现代化与农民收入增加之间动态关系的实证研究表明,三者之间存在着长期稳定的协整关系;城市化是农业现代化的Granger原因,城市化与农民收入增加之间存在着双向的因果关系;农业现代化水平和农民收入水平的提高会促进城市化水平的提高,且后者的促进作用非常显著;城市化会阻碍农业现代化水平的提高,城市化在短期内会不利于农民收入增长,但在长期内会对农民增收产生一定的促进作用。

The results of the empirical studies on the 30 - decade （ 1978 -2008） dynamic relationship among urbanization, agricultural modernization and inerease of farmers ＇ incomes indicate that, there is a long - term stable cointegrate relationship among them. Urban- ization is the Granger Cause of agricultural modernization, and agricultural modernization and increase of farmers＇ incomes are the Granger Cause is the each other. Agricultural modernization and increase of farmers＇ incomes are able to promote urbanization and the latter＇ s effect is remarkable. Urbanization is likely to hamper the progress of agricultural modernization. Urbanization is not condueive to the increase of farmers＇ incomes in the short term, but will have promoting effect in the long term.