单要素径流分级预报不确定性推理模型

Study on Uncertain Reasoning Model of Runoff Hierarchy Forecasting with Single Factor

针对传统径流模糊推理中模糊子集隶属函数描述模糊概念的静态问题,提出了基于云理论的单要素径流分级预报不确定性推理模型,并分别对北方三座水库的入库年径流进行推理预报。与传统模糊推理模型的对比结果表明,该方法径流定性预报合格率高,初步验证了单要素径流预报不确定性推理模型的科学性及有效性。

Aiming at the static problem of fuzzy subset membership function description of fuzzy conception in traditional runoff fuzzy reasoning, uncertain reasoning model of runoff hierarchy forecasting with single factor is proposed in terms of cloudy theory. The proposed method is used to forecast the yearly runoff of three reservoirs, which are located in the northern China. Results comparison with those of the traditional fuzzy reasoning model show that qualification rate of the proposed method is high for runoff forecasting qualitatively. It demonstrates that the proposed method is scientific and effective for runoff forecasting.