摘要
人口数据是进行土地利用总体规划修编的重要基础数据.采用平均增长法、线性回归法和灰色预测法对广西壮族自治区荔浦县人口规模和人口城乡结构进行预测,采用各方法的加权平均值作为最终的预测结果.荔浦县2010年预计人口规模将达到37.6万人,其中:城镇人口5.5万人,农村人口32.1万人;2020年,荔浦县总人口规模将达38.9万人,其中城镇人口5.9万人,农村人口33万人.对人口基数较少的区域进行人口预测,方法对预测结果影响不大.
The population data are important basic data to revise the land use overall planning.Average population growth rate method,linear regression method and GM(1,1) model were taken to predict the population of the target years.Then the weighted average of the 3 predicted populations by the 3 methods was taken as the final predicted population.The population of Lipu County will reach 376 000 persons by 2010 including 55 000 urban people and 321 000 rural people,and 389 000 persons by 2020 including 59 000 urban people and 330 000 rural people.To predict the population in the region with small population size,the prediction method has little influence on the prediction results.
出处
《湖北民族学院学报(自然科学版)》
CAS
2009年第4期468-471,共4页
Journal of Hubei Minzu University(Natural Science Edition)
基金
桂林市土地利用总体规划修编项目
关键词
土地利用总体规划修编
人口预测
荔浦县
land use overall planning revision
population prediction methods
Lipu county