灰色-时序组合预测模型及其在年降水量预测中的应用

Grey Time Series Combined Forecasting Model and Its Application in Annual Precipitation

年降水量的中长期预测对于农业、水利、减灾等行业来说非常重要，但准确的预测又很困难。本文提出了灰色－时序组合预测法，并利用北京市大兴县黄村气象站３５年的降雨量资料进行了验证，精度达到Ｉ级水平。此项预测技术也可用于其他既具有摆动又有一定趋势对象的模拟和预测。

The forecast of annual precipitation is very important for agriculture, water conservancy and calamities reducing, etc. However it is very difficult to get an accurate and reliable predictor. In this paper, a grey time series combined method(GTCM) to predict annual precipitation is proposed and a mathematical model based on grey time series combined method is presented. The authors check the model using the annual precipitation data of Huangcun Meteorological Observation, Daxing county, Beijing, the results show that the accuracy of the model is of Ⅰ level.