西北太平洋热带气旋生成数在不同资料集上的差异性比较

DIFFERENCES AMONG DIFFERENT DATABASES IN THE NUMBER OF TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMING OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

比较分析中国气象局(CMA)、美国台风联合警报中心(JTWC)和日本RSMCTokyo台风中心(JMA)台风资料频次的年际、年代际变化和周期变化特征,结果表明,不同资料中心的热带气旋(TC)、台风(TS强度及以上的TC)生成数的气候值存在一定的差异,热带气旋生成数的差异较为明显,台风生成数的差异相对要小,CMA资料中热带气旋、台风生成数相对偏多;CMA与JTWC间热带气旋生成数年际间变化差异显著而难以忽略,其差异主要来自TD生成数的明显不同;三个中心关于台风生成数的一致性比较好,其中JMA台风资料与另外两个中心资料间的一致更好;CMA与JTWC西北太平洋热带气旋生成数的周期变化间无明显差异,但年代际间变化有明显差异,主要表现为1990年代的反位相;台风生成数资料可能在1960年代后期存在非均一性。

As shown in comparisons of the characteristics of interannual and interdecadal variability and periodical changes in the number of tropical cyclones forming over the western North Pacific by three major forecast centers, i.e. China Meteorological Administration （CMA）, Regional Specialized Meteorological Center of Tokyo （JMA） and Joint Typhoon Warning Center （JTWC） of Guam, there are the following important points. （1） Climatology of tropical cyclone （TC） or typhoon （TC on the intensity of TS or stronger） shows some difference in cyclogenesis among the centers, which is more notable with TC than with typhoon. Both of them are more at the database of CMA than at those of the other two centres. （2） The difference is too significant to ignore in the interannual variability of cyclogenesis between CMA and JTWC, which is mainly resulted from the obvious difference in the interannual variability of the number of generated tropical depression （TD） between the two databases. The difference is small in the interannual variability of TS formations among all the three databases, and consistence is good between JMA and CMA or JTWC. （3） Though differences are not significant in the periodical variation of TC formations between CMA and JTWC, they are markedly apart in the interdecadal variability, which is mainly shown by an anti-phase during the 1990s. （4） Inhomogeneity may exist around the late stage of the 1960s in the data of cyclongenesis of typhoons.