经济增长与建设用地扩张的脱钩分析

On the Degrees of Decoupling and Re-coupling of Economic Growth and Expansion of Construction Land in China from 2002 to 2007

为分析经济增长与建设用地扩张之间的相互关系,论文探讨了经济增长与建设用地扩张脱钩的定义,将环境领域的脱钩概念和脱钩分析引入土地利用分析,在IPAT模型基础上建立了包含建设用地和GDP等变量在内的核算方程,据此对环境领域基于变化量的脱钩评价方法加以了改进,建立了经济增长与建设用地扩张脱钩分析方法。在此基础上,文章以我国经济增长与建设用地的相互关系为例,分别分析了2002—2007年期间全国以及31个省级区域GDP增长与建设用地扩张、非农产业GDP增长与建设用地扩张以及第三产业GDP增长与建设用地扩张之间的脱钩关系。分析表明:以年度为时间尺度,在2002—2007年之间,从GDP和建设用地角度考察,除青海省、上海和海南在个别年份落在强脱钩区域,其余28个省级区域均落在弱脱钩区域;从非农产业GDP和建设用地角度考察,除上海在2006年落在强脱钩区域外,其余30个省级区域均落在弱脱钩区域;从第三产业GDP和建设用地角度考察,除西藏在2003年落在扩张性复钩以及青海、上海、海南和广西在个别年份落在强脱钩区域外,其余26个省级区域均落在弱脱钩区域;以2002—2007年时间段为时间尺度,全国及31个省级区域均落在弱脱钩区域。鉴于建设用地扩张与经济增长之间的滞后关系,以时期为时间尺度进行脱钩分析更为合适;分析还表明,在经济增长过程中,提高建设用地效率对于实现脱钩有重要作用,有效控制建设用地总量是实现强脱钩的重要手段。

The purpose of this study aimed to discuss the approach of assessing the degrees of decoupling expansion of construction land from economic growth and calculate the decoupling degrees between economic growth and expansion of construction land in China from 2002 to 2007. Firstly, the definitions of decoupling economic growth from expansion of construction land were discussed by this research, and the concepts of decoupling and the concepts related with decou- pling in the field of environmental research were introduced to define the decoupling economic growth from expansion of construction land. The evaluation method of decoupling economic from environment impact was also introduced to analyze the decoupling economic growth from construction land. Furthermore, the accounting equations including such variables as construction land, GDP and construction land unit GDP etc were built up based on the traditional IPAT model. With the help of accounting equations about economic growth and construction land, the relation between the rate of economic growth and change rate of construction land unit GDP was studied by the paper, which was used to establish the model to analyze the de-linking relations of economic growth and construction land use by improving one of the assessment methods about decoupling economic from environment. The decoupling relations between economic growth and construction land of China and its provincial regions （not including Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao） from 2002 to 2007 were investigated by this paper with the method of decoupling analysis of economic growth and construction land use, and the degrees of decoupling GDP, non-agricultural industries＇ GDP, namely second ＆ tertiary industries＇ GDP, and tertiary industries＇ GDP from construction land use were calculated respectively. The result shows that as far as time scale of one year is concerned, 28 provincial regions belong to weak decoupling except that some provinciallevel regions belong to strong decoupling, these regions include Qinghai Province in 2003, Shanghai City in 2006, and Hainan Province in 2006 regarding with the relation between GDP and construction land; 30 provincial regions belong to weak decoupling except Shanghai City in 2006 belonging to strong decoupling regarding with the relation between second ＆ tertiary industries＇ GDP and construction land; 26 provincial regions belong to weak decoupling except that Xizang Auton- omous Region belongs to expansive re-coupling regarding with the relation between tertiary industries＇ GDP and construction land in 2003, include Qinghai Province in 2003, Shanghai and these regions belong to strong decoupling, which City in 2006, Hainan Province in 2006, and Guangxi Autonomous Region in 2007 regarding with the relation between tertiary industries＇ GDP and construction land. However, when the time scale of analysis was longer than one year, for example 5 years, all the 31 provincial regions belong to weak decoupling when time span from 2002 to 2007 was used as an analytical time scale, which caused differences from the results with time scale of one year. It can be concluded that given that there existed the time lag between economic growth and construction land use, it is appropriate for using time span as a scale to analyze the decoupling relations between economic growth and construction land use. In view of this point, China belongs to weak decoupling from 2002 to 2007, and it is important for China to achieve strong decoupling economic growth from construction land use by bridling construction land scale besides raising the efficiency of construction land use.