中国经济发展中碳排放增长的驱动因素研究

Driving Factors for Growth of Carbon Dioxide Emissions During Economic Development in China

深入研究中国经济发展中CO2排放量增长的驱动因素,对有的放矢地制定减排政策,发展低碳经济,应对气候变化有着重要的理论和现实意义。本文运用对数平均Divisia指数分解法,把1995—2007年间中国能源消费的CO2排放增长率分解为11种驱动因素的加权贡献,并对这一时期中的6个时间段和每一种驱动因素进行了研究。结果表明:(1)1995—2007年间,中国CO2排放量年均增长12.4%的主要正向驱动因素为人均GDP、交通工具数量、人口总量、经济结构、家庭平均年收入,其平均贡献分别为15.82%、4.93%、1.28%、1.14%和1.11%,负向驱动因素为生产部门能源强度、交通工具平均运输线路长度、居民生活能源强度,其平均贡献分别为-8.12%、-3.29%和-1.42%;(2)人均GDP增长是CO2排放量增长的最大驱动因素,中国的CO2排放与经济发展和居民生活水平提高密切相关;(3)1997—1999年,中国CO2排放量下降的主要驱动因素是工业部门能源利用效率的提高,而深层原因可能是研发经费支出大幅提高所推动的技术进步和工业企业所有制结构的变化;(4)生产部门能源强度下降是抑制CO2排放增长的最重要因素,因此降低生产部门的能源强度是实现CO2减排的关键措施。

To explore the driving factors in growth of CO2 emissions from China＇s energy consumption has theoretical and practical significance for making emission reduction policies, developing low-carbon economy. In this paper, the logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition method is used to decompose the growth rate of China＇s CO2 emissions into the weighted contribution from 11 kinds of the driving factors during the period 1995 to 2007, furthermore six periods in the 13 years and each driving factors are studied respectively. The conclusions are： （1） China＇s CO2 emissions experienced a 12.4 % average annual growth rate during the period 1995 to 2007. The main positive driving factors are per capita GDP, number of vehicle, total population, economic structure and average household income. The respective average contributions are 15.82%, g.93%, 1.28%, 1.14% and 1.11% . The negative driving factors are energy intensity of production sector, transportation routes length per vehicle, household energy intensity. The contributions are - 8.12%, - 3.29%, and - 1.42%. （ii） Per capita GDP growth is the strongest driving force for the growth of CO2 emissions, and China＇s CO2 emissions closely relates to the economic development and people＇s living standard. （iii） A major driving factor for decline of China＇s CO2 emissions during the period 1997 to 1999 is the energy efficiency improvement in the industrial sector, but the underlying reason may be technological progress driven by substantial increase in R＆D expenditures and changes in ownership structure of industrial enterprises. （iv） The decline of energy intensity in production sectors is the most important factors for inhibiting the growth of CO2 emissions, thus reducing the energy intensity of production sector is a key tool to achieve CO2 emission reductions.