中国经济增长与能源消耗脱钩分析

Decoupling Analysis of China Economic Growth and Energy Consumption

中国目前处于工业化发展中期,经济发展模式也从粗放型经济增长模式向集约式经济增长模式转变,但是,目前产业结构仍以能源消耗较大的工业为主。资源短缺、环境污染、生态破坏,已成为制约我国经济发展的主要瓶颈。为了建设环境友好型社会和资源节约型社会,国民经济和社会发展"十一五"规划纲要明确指出:到2010年,单位国内生产总值能源消耗比2005年降低20%左右,主要污染物排放总量减少10%。研究经济增长与能源消耗脱钩,有助于建设资源节约型社会,转变经济增长方式。利用脱钩理论评价模式,基于脱钩指数分析目前我国能源消耗与经济增长的关联,以1990-2007年历史数据为样本,得出结论:在一定阶段经济增长与能源消耗处于绝对脱钩和相对脱钩阶段。

China＇s current industrial development is in the medium-term, economic development mode changing from extensive economic growth mode to intensive economic ~owth model. But, the current dominant industry structure is still industry with large consumption of energy. Energy shortage, environmental pollution and ecological damage are bottlenecks constraining economic development. In order to construct resource saving society and enviromnental friendly society, Eleventh Five Year Plan clearly stated that by 2010, energy consumption the unit GDP of was 20% lower than that in 2005and emissions of major pollutants was 10% lower than that in 2005. Research on decoupling of economic growth and energy consumption helps to build a resource saving society, and change the mode of economic growth. The article expatiated the relation between energy consumption and economic growth, using decoupling theory, based on decoupling index. The article analyzed historical data in 1990 - 2007 samples and conclude that some times economic growth and energy consumption are in the absolute decoupling condition, and some times economic growth and energy consumption are in the comparative decoupling condition in a certain stage.