我国循环农业中的化肥施用与粮食生产脱钩研究

Decoupling Research on Relationship between Chemical Fertilizer Usage and Grain Production of Recycling Agriculture in China

循环农业是一种有效利用资源和保护环境的农业发展模式,正确处理好经济增长和资源消耗之间的关系,是当前我国发展循环农业和农业实现可持续发展的重点和难点。本文运用脱钩理论,分析化肥施用量与粮食生产之间的关系,得出二者之间的脱钩类型;并运用描述性分析和回归分析等方法,分析我国31个省级地区1999-2007年的面板数据,找出影响脱钩类型的因素;提出在科学施肥、粮食生产要素替代、调整粮食作物种植面积等相关对策。

Recycling agriculture is an effectual agricultural development mode. Correctly coordinating the relationship between economic growth and resource consumption is an important and difficult problem in developing circulative agriculture and realizing sustainable development. In this paper, we use decoupling theory to analyze the relationship between chemical fertilizer and cereals production, and calculate three kinds of decoupling relationship. Moreover, we make use of descriptive analysis and regression analysis to process panel figures of 31 provinces in China fi＇om 1999 to 2007. Finally, we work out factors which affect the decoupling types and put forward specific suggestions such as scientifically fertilizing, replacing production factors and adjusting planting structure.