科技进步对经济增长贡献率研究

Research on Contribution Rate of Science and Technology Progress to Economy Growth

在回顾文献和分析我国经济发展现状的基础上,提出科技进步主要由人力资本、研究与开发、单位能源经济效益、产业结构调整、市场化程度等五个主要因素来反映。实证分析了我国1980年至2007年各因素对经济增长的贡献份额并预测至2020年科技进步贡献率可达到60%左右。最后,提出了相应的政策建议。

According to China＇s economy development situation,based on reviewing the literature on the contribution of science and technology progress to economy growth,the paper proposes that＂science and technology progress＂（TFP） is reflected mainly by five factors,which are human capital,RD,per energy＇s economic benefit,industrial structure and marketization degree.The paper estimates each growth factor＇s elasticity coefficient and contribution rate to growth in the period of 1980 to 2007.On the premise of science and technology uninterrupted increasing,the contribution rate can increase about to 60% by 2020.At the end,it put forward some policy advices on growth mode transferring to mainly depend on science and technology progress.