人民币汇率对中美双边贸易的影响——基于多边汇率与双边汇率的研究

The Effect of RMB's Exchange Rate on Sino-U.S.Trade:On the Basis of Multilateral and Bilateral Exchange Rate

本文运用协整向量自回归模型(cointegrating VAR)、误差修正模型(VEC)和方差分解等计量方法,研究人民币对美元双边实际汇率、人民币多边汇率变化与中美双边进、出口及贸易差额的关系,并在模型中引入供给弹性和政策变量以提高检验的准确性。研究结果表明:人民币汇率是影响中美双边贸易的重要因素,人民币汇率升值可以改善中美双边贸易不平衡,其效应在短期内即可显现,但对双边进、出口的影响则取决于人民币对美元双边实际汇率变化与多边汇率变化的综合比较,两国经济增长均将扩大我国对美出口和美、中贸易逆差,而贸易政策对双边贸易的影响也不可忽视。

This paper was an empirical examination of the relationship between the exchange rate of RMB(including the bilateral real exchange rate of RMB against U.S.dollar and the multilateral real exchange rate of RMB against the main trade partners of China, exclude U.S.) and the Sino-U.S.bilateral trade,and analyzed the related variables' impact on the Sino-U.S.bilateral trade.The models were introduced elasticity of supply and variations of trade policy.The results show that the fluctuation of the exchange rate of RMB,not only the bilateral real exchange rate of RMB but also the multilateral real exchange rate of RMB,affects the Sino-U.S.bilateral trade significantly,and the appreciation of RMB has positive influence on the Sino-U.S.trade balance, and it can work in short-term,but the influence on the import of China to U.S.and export of China from U.S.respectively lies on the comparative advantage of the bilateral real exchange rate and the multilateral real exchange rate.The results also show that the determining factors of the Sino-U.S.bilateral trade is the economic and industry structure of two countries,and the trade polices of two countries could not be ignored.