社会保障体系完善与社会经济可持续发展——基于城乡差异和区域差距视角的统计分析

The Improvement of Social Security System and Socioeconomic Sustainable Development in China——Statistical Analysis Based on Rural-Urban Differences and Regional Disparities

社会经济的又好又快发展,是我国社会保障体系可持续发展的坚实依托。而消费需求不足则是长期制约我国经济持续健康发展的瓶颈之一,在当前国际金融市场动荡、外部需求下降的情形下,扩大内需就显得更加紧迫。本文从定量的角度开展我国社会保障支出水平与社会保障可持续发展影响因素的关联序分析,认为确保社会保障支出可持续发展是实现我国经济可持续发展的前提;从城乡差异和区域差异的视角,通过实证分析,探讨城乡社会保障水平与扩大内需之间的关系,考察了社会保障支出项目对居民消费作用的城乡差异和区域差距。在此基础上提出,改善社会保障水平区域不平衡现状、建立覆盖城乡的全国社会保障体系、实施全国统一的社会保险关系转续办法和建立多部门协同管理的社会保障统计体系,将是我国扩大内需、促进经济稳定增长的长期战略。

The sustainable development of China's social security system relies on healthy rapid socio-economic development.The lack of consumer demand is one of the bottlenecks which constrain long-term sustainable and healthy development of China's economy.Under the current situation of international financial turmoil and the declination of external demand,to expand domestic demand has become much more urgent than ever. From a quantitative point of view,this paper puts forward that the sustainable development of China's social security expenditure is the premise of socioeconomic sustainable development,with relational sequence analysis on the level of China's social security expenditure and the influential factors of its sustainable development. The relationship between urban-rural social security and domestic demand augmentation is also explored through empirical analysis from the perspective of urban-rural and regional differences.The results show that the consumption level of urban and rural residents has a significant positive correlation with social security expenditure and that there exists regional differentiations when it comes to the effect of items in social security expenditure on household consumption in urban and rural areas.Finally,the conclusions suggest that the level of regional imbalance in social security ought to be reduced;national social security system covering both urban and rural areas should be established;a unified national social insurance transfer approach must be implemented;and the multi-sector collaborative management of social security statistics system needs to be developed,which will expand domestic demand,promote long-term economic growth and in turn enhance the sustainable development of social security.