基于雨量(强)条件的泥石流预测预报研究现状、问题与建议

Present Status,Problem and Advice on the Research of Prediction and Forecasting of Debris Flow Based on Rainfall Condition

在对基于雨量(强)条件泥石流预测预报现状综合分析的基础上,提出了目前降雨型泥石流预测预报中存在的问题:①前期降雨对泥石流发生的贡献问题;②前期降雨对泥石流影响的衰减问题;③前期有效降雨天数的确定问题;④前期降雨和短历时降雨的权重衡量问题;⑤基于前期有效雨量的泥石流预测预报模式的确定问题。提出了降雨型泥石流预测预报程式框架和相关建议:①基于雨量(强)条件的泥石流预测预报应同机理研究密切结合;②单沟泥石流临界雨量条件和预测预报应同泥石流类型密切结合;③区域泥石流临界雨量条件和预测预报应同环境地质背景密切结合。

According to the analysis on the present status of prediction and forecasting of debris flow hazards based on rainfall condition, four problems existing in prediction and forecasting of debris flow from rainfall are put forward, including （1） contribution of antecedent rainfall to debris flow, （2） attenuation of the effect of antecedent rainfall on debris flow, （3） ascertaining of antecedent effective precipitation days, （4） weighting of antecedent rainfall and short-duration rainfall, and （5） determination of prediction and forecasting model of debris flow based on antecedent effective precipitation. A flow chart and relative advices about prediction and of rainfall-related debris flows are put forward ： （ 1 ） combination of debris flow prediction and forecasting forecasting based on rainfall with the research on occurrence mechanism of debris flow, （2） combination of critical rainfall condition of single gully debris flow and its prediction and forecasting with types of debris flow, and （3） combination of critical rainfall condition of regional debris flow and its prediction and forecasting with geological environment.