摘要
未观测金融包括民间金融、地下金融、非法金融、个人之间的借贷以及金融统计遗漏的部分。在多层次信贷市场体系中,未观测金融补充了正规金融的不足,发挥着一定的积极作用。监测未观测金融对经济的影响需要构建相应的指标体系,本文基于金融经济统计原理,设计衡量未观测金融的指标体系,测算了1982年以来的指标数据,分析未观测金融规模变化与经济运行之间的关系,预测其变化规律和趋势,并就如何规范和监测未观测金融提出了相应的政策建议。
Non- observed finance includes informal finance, underground fi- nance, illegal finance, personal lending and omit of financial statistics. In the multi-level credit market, non-observed finance covers the financial service in the areas lack of formal financial service and impacts economic movement in some ex- tent. It is necessary to build a indicator system for supervising the non - observed finance. In this paper, the author designed indicator system of non- observed fi- nance and estimated the number of different indicators since 1982 based on financial and economic statistics theory. The author also analyzed the relationship between non - observed finance and economic movement and forecasted the changing trend of non-observed finance. The author suggested that the official of statistics should strengthen the research on how to account and measure non- observed.
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第5期140-152,F0003,共14页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
基金
中央财经大学"211工程"三期建设项目研究成果之一
关键词
未观测金融
流量指标
存量指标
指标体系
Non - observed Finance
Indicator of Flow
Indicator of Stock
Indicator System