摘要
首先对我国月度铁路客运量的变动特征进行了分析,并结合多元线性回归和时间序列预测两种模型,运用组合预测方法对2009年1月至12月的铁路客运量进行了预测,结果表明预测误差小,组合预测精度相对单个预测方法均有所提高,说明组合预测是月度铁路客运量预测的有效方法。
The paper firstly analyzes the monthly variation pattern of railway passenger transport volume in China and then, taking together multiple !inear regression and time series forecasting, carries out a combination forecasting on the transport volume from January to December of 2009, with results showing the forecasting error to be smaller than those obtained through single-method forecasting, thus proving the validity of the combination forecasting.
出处
《物流技术》
2010年第7期58-59,85,共3页
Logistics Technology
关键词
多元回归
ARIMA
精度
组合预测
multiple regression
ARIMA
accuracy
corobination forecasting
