生育二胎:“双独夫妇”的意愿及相关因素分析

Bearing the Second Child:the Desire of the Both Only Child Couples and the Analysis of Related Factors

本文通过全国五大城市已婚青年调查数据,以非双独夫妇作为参照,对"双独夫妇"的二胎生育意愿及其相关因素进行了描述与比较分析。研究结果表明,超过60%的"双独夫妇"依旧只希望生育一个孩子,希望生育二胎的"双独夫妇"在30%-40%之间。同时,他们的生育意愿与非双独夫妇之间不存在明显差别。除了不同城市有所不同外,"双独夫妇"的性别、出生年代、文化程度、有无孩子等因素均与其二胎生育意愿没有关系。研究结果对于未来生育率变动的预测,提供了新的参考依据。

With the data of a survey on married young people from five cities,the paper describes the fertility desire of bearing the second child of the both only child couples,and makes compare with the couples who are not both only child.The result shows that more than 60% both only child couples still want to have one child,and about 30% to 40% of them want to have two children.There is no difference between the both only child couples and the couples who are not both only child.Besides the cities,other factors such as sex,age,education,and have child or not,all have no relation with the fertility desire of bearing second child of the both only child couples.The results provide a new reference for the prediction of fertility rate variation in the future.