人民币汇率波动对我国FDI流入的影响

The Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Volatility on FDI Inflow into China

本文运用已有的文献,构建了一个理论模型分析汇率波动对跨国公司对外直接投资的影响,并用协整和误差修正模型分别检验了人民币汇率波动对市场导向型和成本导向型FDI流入中国的长短期影响。结果表明,跨国公司在中国的市场份额和在岗职工平均工资分别对市场导向型FDI和成本导向型FDI流入起关键作用,人民币汇率水平变化在长期对两种类型FDI流入影响不一致,汇率波动剧烈程度对两类FDI流入都有负面影响,汇率波动短期影响不显著。文章最后提出政策建议。

Based on some existing documents, this paper analyzes the theoretical model of the choice of multinational FDI, and utilizes the cointegration and VEC model to test the impact of the RMB exchange rate volatility on both market- oriented and cost-oriented FDI inflow. The result suggests that the market share of international companies in China and the average wage provided by these companies hold the key to the two kinds of FDI inflow respectively. In a long term, the RMB exchange rate volatility has negative impact on both types of FDI inflow, though the specific impact might differ for each. In a short term, the RMB exchange rate volatility has no obvious influence on the FDI inflow into China.