上海市控制和降低二氧化碳排放强度2020年行动目标测算与分析

A Estimation and Analysis of Shanghai' Target to Control and Reduce Intension of CO_2 Emission in 2020

经测算和研究,2020年上海市单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放确定为1.12吨/万元,比2005年2.24吨/万元降低50%,该目标是很有可能实现的。但仅就维持2009年的条件和水平,到2020年二氧化碳排放强度仅比2005年下降34.1%,上海市控制二氧化碳排放还需要挖掘潜力,才能实现确定的行动目标。通过影响二氧化碳排放强度的因素弹性系数测算可知,挖掘上海市控制二氧化碳排放潜力的因素重要性排序,首先是降低煤炭能源消费的比重,然后分别是:降低第二产业能源强度>降低第三产业能源强度>提高第三产业比重>提高外来电、新能源比重>提高天然气能源比重。为实现上述行动目标,提出相关政策建议。

This paper has an estimation and analysis on Shanghai＇target of controlling CO2 emission, i.e. reduction rate of CO2 emission per - unit of GDP in 2020 comparison with 2005. A result of the research is that the CO2 emission per - unit of GDP in 2020 is estimated as 1. 12 ton/104yuan GDP, 50% reduction comparison with 2.24 ton/104yuan GDP in 2005, is likely reached. However, the CO2 emission per - unit of GDP in 2020 is only fall by 34.1% comparison with 2005 if the intension and consumption structure of energy is hold as the situation in 2009. Shanghai has to do more works to control CO2 emission to reach the anticipative targets. A rank of significant factors of controlling CO2 emission is firstly reduction of coal ratio in energy structure, then reduction of energy intension in the second industry 〉 reduction of energy intension in the third industry 〉 increase the ratio of the third industry 〉 increase the ratio of purchasing electric power and new energy 〉 increase the ratio of natural gas according to the measured elasticity of factors affecting on CO2 emission. At length several policy suggestions are provided in this paper.