金融网络视角下的宏观审慎管理--基于银行间支付结算数据的实证分析

Macro-prudential Regulation from the Perspective of the Financial Network—An Empirical Analysis Based on the Data From Payment and Settlement System In China

本文认为,以金融系统内个体间相互连接构成的网络为对象,立足于金融网络结构的稳定性分析,并以此视角对整个金融体系的系统性风险状况进行监测、预警与分析,不失为现有制度约束下,推进我国宏观审慎管理制度建立的关键。本文提出借鉴矩阵模型的思路构建中国金融网络的风险传递模型,并以单一时点压力测试的方式衡量金融网络稳定性,为推动宏观审慎管理框架的建立开拓新的思路。通过分析:(1)理论上,得到了银行网络的稳定条件,并证明了网络稳定状态的存在性与唯一性;(2)实证上,首次利用银行间支付结算数据进行了网络模型实证,并对中国银行网络的结构特点进行了多维度描述;(3)发现我国银行间网络表现出明显的重要节点与局部团状结构共存的结构特征,且网络稳定性表现出一定条件与范围内的均衡。

From the perspective of financial network stability analysis achieved by studying the network formed with linkages of individual financial institutes, this paper aims to delve into the monitoring, warning, and analy- zing of the systematic risk of the financial system as a whole, which is the key to drive macro-prudential regula- tion forward within the regime of existing financial regulations. Through the analysis we＇ve achieved the follow- ing. First, a new way of depict of the structure of financial system＇s network and a practical method of macro- prudential regulation is proposed. Second, by analyzing the stability of the banking network, it can be seen that after the explosion of the economic crisis, the country＇s macro-economic policies to improve the stability of China＇s own financial network produced positive results. Third, through an initial empirical analysis of the na- tional banking network, the country＇s inter-banking network displays a structural characteristic of the coexistence of important nodes and locally closely connected clusters.