基于风险综合评判的设备状态检修决策优化

Decision-making Optimization of Equipment Condition-based Maintenance According to Risk Comprehensive Evaluation

针对目前在设备状态检修决策中尚未将设备状况与电网运行情况综合考虑的问题,提出一种计及设备故障风险及电网运行风险的输变电设备状态检修决策优化模型,以"综合风险费用最小"为优化目标,以同时检修、互斥检修、检修资源、电网安全等限制条件为约束。在充分考虑设备状态检修前后故障概率变化情况的基础上,采用禁忌搜索算法求解所建立的优化模型,通过风险经济性量化实现设备与电网运行风险的综合评判,得到技术经济综合最优的状态检修决策方案。对华东某地区电网的算例分析表明了所提出的优化模型及算法的有效性。

In view of the lack of comprehensive consideration of equipment condition-based maintenance and grid operation in the optimization of decision-making,an optimization model for condition-based maintenance decision-making for transmission equipment is proposed that takes into account both the equipment failure risk and grid operation risk.With ＂minimum integrated risk cost＂ as the optimization objective and such restrictions as simultaneous maintenance,exclusive maintenance,repair resources,network security,etc as constraints,the solution for the model should be found using the Tabu search algorithm while considering the changes of the equipment failure possibility before and after the condition-based maintenance.Risk comprehensive evaluation is achieved by risk economic quantification to obtain the best technical and economic maintenance program.The effectiveness of the optimization method is illustrated with an example in the power grid of a certain area in East China.