城市家庭能耗直接碳排放影响因素——以厦门岛区为例

Direct carbon emission from urban residential energy consumption:a case study of Xiamen,China

在全球城市化迅速推进的过程中,城市碳排放已经成为影响全球变化不可忽视的一部分,同时也成为制约城市可持续发展重要因素之一。家庭能耗碳排放是城市碳排放的一个组成部分,分析它的各种影响因素对于控制它对局域乃至全球气候变化的负面影响具有重要的意义。以厦门岛区为例,通过社会问卷设计和调查,应用数理统计方法对最终收回的340份有效问卷进行城市家庭能耗的影响因子分析,结果表明,2007年厦门岛区平均家庭能耗直接碳排放量为1218.2kg/(户.a),电力消耗直接碳排放是厦门岛区主要的家庭能耗直接碳排放方式,电力消耗直接碳排放量是瓶装液化石油气与代用天然气使用直接碳排放总量的近5倍。通过单因素方差分析与多元逐步回归方程得到,与住区自然环境与家庭耗能倾向相比,家庭社会情况是影响家庭能耗直接碳排放最为重要的因子,其对家庭能耗直接碳排放变化的解释能力为17.9%。通过主成分分析得到,家庭住宅面积对家庭能耗直接碳排放的影响最为显著,家庭住宅面积对公共因子的贡献率达到了0.829。研究旨在为城市节能减排和可持续发展提供第一手资料、为城市住区形态的合理设计和规划提供科学依据。

Carbon emission from urban metabolism constitutes a substantial component of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission,which is at least partially responsible for the recent global warming. Part of urban carbon emission comes from residential energy consumption. Given the ongoing urbanization trend and strict emission-reduction requirement,a good understanding of the urban residential energy consumption direct carbon emission （URECDCE） is of great importance to the sustainability of social and economic developments in China. We conducted a survey on residential energy consumption in the island districts of Xiamen in SE China in 2008. This study is based on 340 valid responses to the survey. The analysis shows （1） residential electricity consumption is the most important source of URECDCE; （2） in terms of URECDCE,social economic situation is more important than the natural setting of building and the energy consumption tendency; and （3） among six social economic variables surveyed,family size is the most important factor affecting family energy consumption. The survey provides the first-hand data for design and planning for urban energy saving,emission reduction,and scientific development.