财政社会保障支出与消费——基于部分欧元区国家与我国的实证分析

Social protection expenditure from governments and consumption based on empirical analysis in Euro Area and China

从理论上讲,财政社会保障支出可以直接增加个人收入,从而增加消费量;也可以作为一种收入再分配的手段,通过增加全社会的边际消费倾向而增加消费。本文选取10个欧元区国家1996—2005年的面板数据和我国1996—2005年的时序数据分别建模,得出的结论是:欧元区国家与我国的财政社会保障支出对消费总额的影响都是显著的,但是由于经济发展水平及社会保障制度的发展阶段不同,两者的财政社会保障支出通过平均消费倾向等中间变量而对总消费的影响是有差异的。

It has long been argued whether social protection expenditure from government can facilitate the gross final consumption,and through what approaches.This paper believes that,theoretically,social protection expenditure from governments can directly increase individual income and the gross final consumption indirectly.Also,it cand influence the marginal propensity to consume through the change of their anticipation for the future,and finally,the gross final consumption increases.On the other hand,social protection expenditure from governments,as a means of income redistribution,can augment social average MPC.Empirically,this paper simulates equations based on panel data from 10 countries in Euro area and time series in China for 10 years,and finally concludes that social protection expenditure from governments influences the consumption insignificantly both in Euro area and in China.However,some intermediate variables such as average propensity of consumer and ratio of unemployment affect consumption differently because of the differences of the development stages in terms of economy and social security.