南亚核态势新发展初析

Current Trends in the Nuclear Posture of South Asia

1998年印巴核试验改变了南亚地区安全格局,南亚核态势出现新的变化。南亚核态势发展变化的主要动因是南亚地缘政治因素,但同美国的南亚政策密切相关。奥巴马＂无核世界＂的构想,特别是2010年不扩散核武器审议大会,各方在核裁军、核不扩散、和平利用核能等重大问题上共识增加,使印巴这样的＂体制外＂有核国家面临压力。南亚安全形势错综复杂,如何在维护核不扩散体系有效性的同时,推动印巴两国不断改善关系,走出安全困境,考验着国际社会特别是印巴两国的智慧。

Nuclear tests by India and Pakistan respectively in 1998 altered the security setup of South Asia,ushering in a new change in the nuclear posture of the region.The main cause of development and change of the nuclear posture in South Asia not only lies in the geopolitical elements in the region,but is closely related to the U.S.policy to South Asia.As consensus reached by various sides on such important issues as nuclear disarmament,nuclear non-proliferation,peaceful use of nuclear energy is gaining ground due to the proposal of 'nuclear-free world'by President Obama,and in particular,to the 2010 UN NPT Review Conference,India and Pakistan,the two nuclear countries that are out of bounds of any treaty,have felt the pressure.Under the backdrop of a complicated and confused security environment in South Asia,how to uphold the validity of nuclear non-proliferation mechanism and at the same time encourage India and Pakistan to improve their bilateral ties so as to get out of the security dilemma,will be a demanding test of wisdom on the international community and on India and Pakistan in particular.