我国流动性过剩的实证研究

An Empirical Study of the Fluid Surplus in China

当前,中国流动性过剩问题日益严重化,受到各方的广泛关注。所谓流动性过剩实质上就是货币超量供应。在导致流动性过剩的诸多原因之中,超额外汇储备导致外汇占款过多,从而导致货币发行量增大,无疑是最重要的原因。文章通过采集近年数据,建立回归分析模型,分析外汇储备对广义货币供应量M_2的影响程度,并提出进一步培育健全外汇市场、放宽外汇管制、外汇储备证券化等解决流动性过剩问题的政策建议。

At present, fluid surplus in China is getting more grave, which draws wide attention. The fluid surplus means over-supply of currency, of the many factors that lead to fluid surplus, the most important is the over-quota foreign exchange reserve that results ha the increase of currency issuance. This paper proposes that efforts must be made to cultivate foreign exchange market, loosen for- eign exchange control, and foreign exchange stoek market.