中国工业部门能耗碳排放分解与低碳策略研究

Decomposition of Carbon Emissions and Low Carbon Strategies for Industrial Sector Energy Consumption in China

在对我国工业部门能源消费进行分析的基础上,集中研究了影响工业部门能耗碳排放的具体因素,综合考虑能源排放强度、能源结构、能源强度和产出规模等四个要素,运用指标分解分析法中的对数平均权重分解法,建立了工业部门能耗碳排放分解模型,并对1995年-2007年的工业部门能耗碳排放进行实证分析,结果表明工业能源强度显现出了对碳排放明显的负影响,工业经济产出效应明显分为正影响缓慢增长的1995年-2001年和迅速增长的2001年-2007年两个阶段;工业总量增长引起能源消耗上升是导致碳排放总量迅速增长的直接原因,并且该效应已经抵消了能源强度效应对碳减排的贡献。文章最后提出了针对工业部门能源消耗的源头、过程和末端三个环节的低碳对策,特别强调了电力热力行业节能减排,调整发电能源结构对改善我国能源结构,从源头上减排的重要性。

Based on analysis of the energy consumption of industrial sectors in China, the present paper explores factors influencing industrial sector CO2 emissions related to energy consumption. By comprehensively accounting for elements of energy related emission intensity, energy consumption structure, energy intensity and industrial economic activity levels, and using the logarithmic mean weight decomposition method, the authors built a decomposition model for industrial sector CO2 emissions related to energy consumption, and performed an empirical study for the industrial sector CO2 emissions during the period 1995-2007. Results show that the industrial energy intensity has a negative influence on carbon emissions. In the year 2001, the contribution of negative influence accounted for up to -189.50% of the total influence, but from the year 2003 the contribution started to decrease significantly and reached as less as -18.71% in 2007. The industrial economic output effect was conceptually divided into two stages, i.e., slow growth of positive impact from 1995 to 2001 and rapid growth of positive impact from 2001 to 2007. In 2007, the portion of the industrial output effect accounting for the contribution of the total effects was still 117.71%. It can be drawn that the growth of energy consumption caused by industrial value added increase is the major reason of the rapid growth of carbon emissions, and the effect has offset the contributions of the energy structure to carbon emissions reduction. This reflects the situation that the rapid growth of carbon emissions caused by China’s industrial total energy consumption seems to be difficult to change. Even though a great effort has been make in enacting legislation, implementing energy-saving strategies to promote industrial structure adjustment, and other reform and complementary measures, the achievements appear to be limited with the bottlenecks and difficulties being encountered again in practice. Low carbon strategies are therefore proposed in the view of different phases of energy production, energy use and carbon control at the end. The electric and heat industry is the most important bridge between energy and the secondary energy. With decreasing primary energy demand for industrial sectors, the secondary energy, such as electric power and heat demand can increase. It is particularly critical to emphasizing the importance of energy conservation and emissions reduction in the electric power industry and thermal industry. Additional work will be done about developing a more realistic method for carbon measurement and investigating more detailed relations of carbon emissions with respect to specific industrial sectors.