摘要
为定量把握进口农产品价格波动对中国宏观经济各个指标及各行业的影响效应,笔者基于2007年的投入产出表,编制社会核算矩阵,建立多部门的可计算一般均衡模型,在整个宏观经济的背景下,量化分析进口农产品价格冲击对于中国经济的影响。研究表明:进口农产品价格上涨对宏观经济有一定的影响效应,且总体效应为负,其中对实际GDP的影响非常小,同时对与农业紧密相关的行业产生了紧缩作用,而对于与农业相关性弱的行业则有小幅的扩张作用。
The price fluctuation of imported agricultural products will definitely have an impact on China ＇ s macro economic indices as well as various industries, in order to make quantitative analysis on this problem in the background of China ＇ s aggregate economic activity, a multi-sector computable general equilibrium（CGE） model based on the social accounting matrix（SAM） incorporating the latest 2007 input-output table has been constructed .The empirical study shows that： increase of imported agricultural products ＇ price will have a negative effect on macroeconomy and contraction effect on related industries, especially for those agriculture related sectors. However, real GDP is influenced very little by price increase.
出处
《中国农学通报》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第19期445-449,共5页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
教育部专项基金课题(2009-1-23)
