摘要
在经济景气循环下,产能过剩经常成为经济复苏中重要和必须应对的问题。本文分析产能过剩的形成机制,指出产能过剩不仅由经济周期波动引起,更可能有投资层面的成因。在林毅夫(2007)的基础上,本文描述了发展中国家的企业很容易对下一个有前景的产业产生共识,投资上容易出现"潮涌现象"的过程。本文着眼于投资建厂时信息不完全,尤其是"行业内企业总数目不确知"这一因素,建构了一个先建立产能、再进行市场竞争的动态架构,提出"潮涌现象"的微观理论基础——看似"盲目"的结果其实是对其他企业和总量信息了解不足所导致的理性结果。本文还进一步分析了企业实际数量、行业外部前景、建厂成本等因素对产能利用率、市场均衡价格、企业市场收益的影响。最后,在增进对"潮涌现象"理解的同时,也讨论了相关问题对理解当下金融危机复苏过程的重要意义,在产业和宏观经济层面提出了制定政策时应该思考的几个方向。
In this paper we analyze the formation of excess capacity, showing that excess capacity can be led by decentralized investment decisions under incomplete information rather than fluctuations in aggregate demand. Following Lin (2007), we illustrate that because of the advantages of backwardness, firms in a developing country are prone to share a consensus about the next promising industry, resulting in a wave phenomenon in the firms' investments and thus excess capacity in the new industry. Focusing on information imperfection during capacity investments, especially "uncertainty about firm-number", we establish a two - stage model to study the micro mechanism of wave phenomena-the seemingly unreasonable result is rather based on individual rational decision under incomplete information about aggregate investment and other firms' behavior. Furthermore, this paper discusses the influences on endogenous variables from changes in realized firm number, the industry' s potentials, capacity establishment cost, etc. Finally, besides getting a better understanding of "wave phenomena", we discuss the implications of our results for better industrial and macroeconomic policies.
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第10期4-19,共16页
Economic Research Journal
基金
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大研究项目(08JJD840198)的资助
关键词
潮涌现象
产能过剩
企业数目不确知
信息不完全
Wave Phenomena
Excess Canacitv
Uncertain Number of Firms
investment Behavior