计划生育政策的储蓄与增长效应:理论与中国的经验分析

Saving and Growth Effects of the One-Child Policy:Theory and China’s Empirical Study

本文研究了由计划生育所引发的中国人口急剧转变所带来的储蓄与增长效应。在生育受到计划生育政策约束的制度环境下,本文通过一个简单的三期世代交替模型讨论了出生率、人口增长率、人口年龄结构等人口变量对储蓄和经济增长的影响。本文的理论研究发现,出生率(人口增长率)下降会提高国民储蓄率与人均GDP的增长率,人口老龄化对储蓄率影响不确定。本文运用中国1989—2007年的分省面板数据进行了计量分析,经验结论与模型的理论预测相一致,人口变量的变化能够解释人均GDP增长率的绝大部分变化,也能很好解释储蓄率的变化。本文的估计结果对替代性的人口变量的选取、估计方法的选择以及估计函数形式的设定都是非常稳健的,计划生育的储蓄与增长效应的确非常显著。

This paper investigates the saving and growth effects of China＇ s sharp demographic transition originated from the one-child policy. Using a three period overlapping generation model with demographic change under fertility constraint, we discuss the impacts of the birth rate, population growth rate and age composition on China＇s saving rate and economic growth rate. Our theory model predicts that lower birth and population rate will increase aggregate saving rate and growth rate of per capita GDP, and the population aging has an alnbiguous effect on aggregate saving rate. Based on theory model, we conduct an empirical study by drawing on panel data from China＇ s 29 provinces for the period 1989--2007. The findings support our theory＂ predictions. Our results are robust to different definitions of demographic variables and ahemative estimation methods. We conclude that China＇ s one-child policy is indeed saving and growth enhancing.