北京奥运会空气质量保障方案京津冀地区措施评估

Assessment on the Effectiveness of the Air Quality Assurance Program in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Area during the Beijing Olympic Games Period

采用嵌套网格空气质量预报模式系统(NAQPMS)源追踪方法,研究了奥运会北京空气质量保障方案京津冀污染控制措施对北京城八区(包括东城区、西城区、崇文区、宣武区、海淀区、朝阳区、丰台区和石景山区)空气质量的影响,量化基准、减排情景下京津冀地区对北京城八区SO2、可吸入颗粒物(PM10)浓度的贡献率。首先,模式对比验证结果表明,NAQPMS较好地模拟出奥运会同期(2006年8月)北京空气质量状况。其次,源追踪方法研究结果表明:1)除平谷县外,其余各区县SO2、PM10浓度北京污染源贡献占主导地位,特别是城八区,北京污染源对SO2、PM10月平均浓度的贡献百分比都超过80%。2)保障方案污染减排情景下,一方面北京污染源对城八区SO2贡献浓度显著减小;另一方面除张家口外,天津、河北各源区对城八区SO2贡献浓度略微下降,综合效果下,城八区SO2浓度将显著下降。与此同时,分析表明北京污染源对城八区SO2浓度贡献效率将增加。3)保障方案减排情景下,北京污染源对城八区一次PM10贡献浓度也显著减小,而天津、河北各源区对城八区一次PM10浓度则略有增加,这与周边源区对城八区SO2浓度贡献特征略有不同,综合效果下,北京本地强有力的颗粒物削减措施依然可有效降低城八区近地面PM10浓度。

The Nested Air Quality Prediction Model System（NAQPMS） coupled with an on-line pollutant source tracking module is utilized to estimate the contributions of the air pollutants,i.e.,SO2 and PM10,from Beijing and its surrounding areas to urban Beijing under the air quality assurance program for Beijing Olympic Games quantitatively.The results indicate that：1） The contribution of the local emissions of Beijing is predominant in the SO2 and PM10 concentration in all counties except Pinggu County,especially in urban Beijing,where the contribution of Beijing emissions exceeds 80% of the SO2 and PM10 concentrations.2） Under the pollutant control measures in the air quality assurance program,the contribution of Beijing emissions to the SO2 concentration in urban Beijing reduced significantly,and that of the surrounding areas（Tianjin and Hebei） to SO2 concentration had a slight decline,thus,the SO2 concentration in urban Beijing decreased significantly,but the contribution per unit emission of Beijing local emissions increased.3） The contribution of Beijing emission to primary PM10 concentration in urban Beijing decreased significantly while the surrounding contributions had a slight increase,and therefore the PM10 concentration also decreased under the air quality assurance program.