基于城市化质量的中国城市化发展速度判定分析

Chinese Urbanization Speed Judging Based on Urbanization Quality

通过探析城市化发展质量的内涵,建立包括城市基础实力、城市化发展协调度、城市化发展可持续水平3个维度的31个指标体系及城市化发展质量评价模型、城市化发展"质"、"量"协调性测度模型,利用联合国法修正改革开放以来中国的城市化发展速度,根据1978～2008年相关统计数据及2008年各省最新统计数据,基于对城市化质量的测度,判定改革开放以来中国城市化发展速度及2008年省际城市化发展速度的适度性。研究结果表明,1978～2008年,中国城市化发展质量指数逐渐增大,城市化发展速度与质量的协调性渐好,城市化发展速度略显滞后;省际城市化发展质量指数差异明显,从东部、中部、西部依次降低,城市化发展类型可分为质量过度滞后型、质量滞后型、协调型、速度滞后型及速度过度滞后型5种类型;人口城市化水平并不能反映城市化发展质量的真实水平,城市规模与城市化质量亦不存在对应关系;中国城市化质量各个领域发展均衡性明显不足,城市基础实力是当前城市化发展质量提升的主要动力,省域城市化发展质量较高及"质"、"量"协调性较好的地区仍存在许多不足。

After illuminating the connotation of urbanization quality,this paper constructed an index system comprised with 31 indicators,from three aspects including strength of urban infrastructure,coordination degree of urbanization and sustainable level of urbanization.On this basis,models of urbanization quality evaluation and coordination evaluation between urbanization ＂ quality＂ and ＂ quantity＂ were established.Using United Nations method,this paper amended the urbanization rate of China（excluding Hongkong,Macao and Taiwan） since the Reform and Opening Up,and then judged China＇s urbanization rate and moderation of inter-provincial urbanization speed of 2008 based on statistical data of 1978 ～ 2008 and latest statistics of each province in 2008.The results show that：① Mass index of Chinese urbanization increased gradually from 1978 to 2008,and the coordination between urbanization speed and quality was getting better.But the speed of urbanization was slightly lagging behind.② In 2008,China＇s inter-provincial urbanization indices were significant different,turning lower from the eastern,central to western.Urbanization in China can be divided into five types：serious quality lag-type,quality lag-type,coordination-type,speed lag-type,and serious speed lag-type.③ Population can＇t reflect the real level of urbanization quality.And corresponding relationship between city scale and quality of urbanization didn＇ t exist,which means it＇s not correct that larger city was better in quality.④ Balance of Chinese urbanization quality in each aspect was obviously insufficient.Urban foundation strength was the main driving force of improving urban quality currently.Assuredly,there were still many insufficiencies in those areas where provided with high quality of urbanization development or better coordination between speed and quality.