刺桐姬小蜂在中国的潜在地理分布预测模型

Potential Geographical Distribution Model of Quadrastichus erythrinae Kim in China

根据刺桐姬小蜂分布的关键气候因子临界值、有效积温和生物气候相似距,选用Access设计数据库、Maplnfo MapX和Visual Basic设计程序,构建了刺桐姬小蜂在中国的潜在地理分布模型。利用中国670个气象站点30 a的气候资料运行该模型,预测结果表明,刺桐姬小蜂可以生存的地区占全国的59.40%,该虫在中国可以生存的绝大多数地区1年发生3～6代。按风险程度可将该虫在中国的分布区划分为安全区(占40.60%)、轻度危险区(占22.69%)、危险区(占23.73%)、高度危险区(占12.99%)。刺桐姬小蜂的气候相似距预测表明,中国华南地区以及云南、浙江、江西的部分地区与该虫标准点之间生物气候相似距较小(dij为0.6左右),入侵的风险最高。

Based on the main climatic critical factors of the distribution of Quadrastichus erythrinae Kim,effective accumulative temperature and bioclimate analogical distance（BAD）,Access Database,Maplnfo MapX and Visual Basic design process were selected to establish a geographical distribution model of Q.erythrinae（GDMQE）.The meteorological datas of 30 years duration from 670 stations in China were used to run the GDMQE.The model predicts that： the pest could exist in 59.40% regions of China,and was more likely to occur 3 to 6 generations yearly in suitable survival regions;the potential geographical distribution could be divided into security areas（accounted for 40.60%）,mild dangerous areas（22.69%）,dangerous areas（23.73%） and high-risk areas（12.99%）;South China Region and partial areas of Yunnan,Zhejiang,Jiangxi Province which had the shortest bio-climate similar distance（dij=0.6） with the standard point were most likely to be invaded by Q.erythrinae