粘纸效应:对地方政府规模膨胀的一种解释

Flypaper Effect: An Explanation to the Expanding of Local Governments' Size

自分税制以来中央对地方进行了巨额的财政转移支付,特别是1999年开始的地区性发展战略,将大量的财政转移支付给予内陆地区。我们发现这种转移支付会产生非常强的粘纸效应(Flypaper Effect),即转移支付相对于本地的财政收入而言,会使得地方政府规模出现更严重的膨胀。本文的结论表明,每一个单位的转移支付会使得政府支出水平上升0.6—1.3个单位,而相同的GDP或者居民收入增长的效应仅为0.1—0.2;同样,人均财政转移支付每增加1万元,会使得每万人的机关人数增加62人,而本地财政收入相同增幅所带来的效应仅为0.037人。因而本文认为,要缓解政府支出规模增长过快,特别是防止内陆地区未来出现更严重"吃饭财政"困境,则需要赋予内陆地区更多的减税空间。

The central government of China transferred lots of revenue to the local governments since the tax sharing reform in 1994,especially with the regional development strategy from 1999.We found in this paper that the transfer did cause the flypaper effect,which means the local governments＇ size will grow significantly if it receives the fiscal transfers.The conclusion of this paper is that,with one unit increase of the transfer per capita,the local government＇s expenditure will increase 0.6-1.3 unit,while the effect of the same amount fiscal revenue is 0.1-0.2 unit.With 10000 Yuan increase of the per capita transfer,the government employees will increase 62 for each 10000 residents and the effect of local revenue is 0.037.So we claim that the central government should give more freedom to the local governments to reduce their tax burden.