中国外汇储备增长的新特征

New Trends of Chinese Foreign Exchange Reserve Accumulation

学术界过去通常认为,中国官方外汇储备积累快速增长的直接原因是中国国际收支的"双顺差",即同时出现的显著规模的经常账户顺差与金融账户顺差,其中经常账户顺差主要由货物贸易顺差所引致。仔细检查近年来中国国际收支数据,人们可以发现,中国金融账户平衡有着显著的波动性;贸易顺差对经常账户顺差的贡献度呈现下降趋势;经常账户顺差中来自投资收益的比重在上升。进一步推论,投资收益逐渐成为经常账户顺差的一个重要来源,而经常账户顺差是官方外汇储备的主要来源。由于投资收益顺差直接来自于中国国际投资净头寸,其中官方外汇储备是最重要之构成,所以,外汇储备积累所产生的收益也成为自身不断增长的一个新来源。

A conventional view holds that the main direct causes of rapid accumulation in China＇ s official foreign exchange reserve are the twin surpluses, current account surplus, of which especially trade surplus and financial account surplus. Yet we examine the balance of payment data for the recent years and observe that：there is considerable volatility in China＇s financial account balance;contribution of trade in goods to current account surplus has been declining over time whilst that of investment income is on rise. It is clear that investment income becomes a new and important source of China＇s current account surplus, which in turn continues to be the most important source of FX reserve accumulation. As investment income primarily derives from the country＇s net international investment position,in which FX reserve has taken a lion share,we believe that China＇s FX reserve begins to show certain self-sustaining growth tendency.