基于历史数据的水利水电工程造价快速预测

Fast prediction of cost of hydropower projects based on historical data

以水利水电工程的历史造价数据为基础,利用ABC分类法对待估水利水电工程进行分类,采用模糊数学的指数平滑法对工程的主要项目进行造价预测,并结合其他简单预测方法对工程的次要项目进行预测,达到对水利水电工程成本进行快速预测以指导水利工程投标报价的目的。通过案例验证了该快速预测方法,结果表明,该预测方法可以得到较为准确的预测数据,可以真实地反映企业的实际生产水平。

Based on the historical data of cost of hydropower projects,the activity-based classification was employed to classify the projects to be estimated. The cost of the main project items was predicted by use of the exponential smoothing method of fuzzy mathematics,and that of the minor project items was predicted by means of other simple methods.Accordingly,the goal of the fast prediction of the cost of hydropower projects would be achieved to guide their tender offer.The fast prediction method was validated by case studies.The results show that the proposed prediction method can provide more accurate data and can reflect the actual production levels of hydropower plants.