金融发展、对外开放与城乡居民收入差距——基于1978～2008年省际面板数据的实证分析

Financial Development,Opening-up and Urban-rural Income Gap:Empirical Analysis Based on the Panel Data from 1978 to 2008

本文基于1978～2008年中国30个省份的面板数据,通过建立面板协整与误差修正模型,对我国金融发展、对外开放与城乡居民收入差距之间的长期稳定关系和短期波动影响做出实证分析,结果表明:对全国而言,长期内金融发展和对外开放均显著扩大了城乡居民收入差距,且金融发展的影响大于对外开放,而对外开放的中介效应显著,随着对外开放水平的提高,金融发展将进一步扩大收入差距;对东部地区,金融发展拉大收入差距的影响高于全国水平,对外开放影响不显著;中、西部地区情况与全国相同,但是对外开放的影响大于金融发展。东、中部地区对外开放的中介效应为正,西部地区为负。本文随后对其背后的原因和政策含义进行了阐述。

With the provincial panel data from 1978 to 2008, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the long-run relationship and the short-run volatility＇s influence among financial development, opening-up and urban-rural income gap in China. The results show that financial development and opening-up broaden urban-rural income gap significantly in the long-term, and financial development＇s effect is larger than opening-up＇s, and opening-up has significant mediating effect that financial development broadens urban-rural income gap further with opening-up＇s promotion. Financial development broadens urban-rural ineome gap and opening-up has little effeet on urban-rural income gap in east China; it＇s similar to the situation of whole country, but opening-up has larger effect in west China and central China. At last, this paper provides the explanation and some suggestions.