中国水资源承载力综合评价研究

Comprehensive Evaluation of China's Water Resources Carrying Capacity

中国水资源短缺,加之水资源时空分布不均、水土资源分布不匹配,水资源已成为制约中国社会经济可持续发展的重要因素。文章从系统论的角度出发,研究中国经济、社会发展、生态环境与水资源的协调发展关系,运用水资源承载力综合评价模型,通过选取特定年份相关数据计算其水资源承载力综合评价指数,描述中国各省区水资源承载力状况,以此综合分析评价中国水资源的承载能力。结果表明:中国水资源分布不均,与人口分布和经济布局不相匹配;西南省区水资源承载潜力相对较大;长江、珠江流域及东部沿海地区,已无水资源承载力优势;华北平原、西北地区如新疆、宁夏、甘肃等地区水资源严重短缺,水资源超载严重,水资源承载力渐趋枯竭。

China＇ s water resources shortages, combined with uneven spatial and temporal distribution of water resources, does not match the layout of land and water resources. Actually in China water resources deficiency has become an important factor, which constrained China＇ s social and economic sustainable development. Based on the point of view of system theory, this paper researches on the coordinated development relationship among socio-economic development, ecological environment and water resources in China. Using comprehensive evaluation model for water resources carrying capacity and selecting data of a given year from each province in China （ not including Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan due to no data）, it calculates the comprehensive evaluation index of carrying capacity of water resources, describes the water resources carrying capacity situation of China＇s various provinces and autonomous regions,thus to get a comprehensive analysis and evaluation of the water resources carrying capacity in China. The resuhs showed that ： 1 ） the distribution of water resources did not match the distribution of population and economic divisions in China; 2） the southwestern provinces have relatively large potential of water carrying capacity; 3） the Yangtze River, Pearl River, and eastern coastal areas are no longer having the advantages of water carrying capacity; and 4） in North China Plain, northwestern regions, such as Xinjiang, Ningxia, Gansu ctc, water shortage is severe, water carrying capacity overload seriously, and the water resources carrying capacity is becoming exhausted.