人民币汇率对企业进出口贸易的影响——来自中国企业的实证研究

本文首次使用2000年至2006年的中国进出口企业面板数据,分别估计了人民币实际有效汇率变动对我国企业出口值与进口值产生的影响,从微观层面上估计了我国进出口的汇率弹性。本文的结果表明,人民币实际有效汇率每升值1%,企业出口值减少0.99%,但同时,企业进口值也降低0.71%。此外,本文发现,私营企业、高科技和资本密集型行业中的企业、从事进料加工贸易的企业以及东部和南部沿海地区的企业,其进出口值在人民币升值过程中遭受的冲击最大。

Using the Chinese Customs data from 2000 -2006, this paper takes the first attempt to estimate the effects of RMB real effective exchange rate（REER） on export and import revenues of Chinese enterprises. The authors employ fixed-effect estimations to largely remove unobserved finn and time effects. The results show that after controlling for unobserved and endogenous firm＇s characteristics, one percent RMB appreciation of REER reduces export revenues by 0. 99 percent and at the same time reduces import revenues by O. 71 percent. Fur- thermore, it is found that private finns, and the firms in high-tech and capital intensive industries, the firms engaged in processing trade with imported materials, and the firms located in east and south coast areas, are most negatively affected by the RMB appreciation. In summary, as RMB appreciation will reduce both export and import revenues of Chinese enterprises, it has little effect on improving Chinese trade balance toward world.