农业科技资源与农业经济发展关系实证

An Empirical Research on the Relationship between Agricultural Science and Technology Resources and Economic Development of Agriculture

农业科技资源是实现农业发展方式转变和农业可持续发展的重要因素,发展现代农业也迫切需要将农业科技资源转化为现实生产力。为了分析农业科技资源与农业经济发展之间的动态关系,作者选取中国1990-2008年的统计数据,运用协整分析和格兰杰因果关系检验,考察了农业研究与开发机构科技活动经费支出、农业技术人员及农业机械总动力与农业经济增长的内在关系。实证结果表明:农业科技资源与农业经济发展之间存在协整关系,即长期稳定的均衡关系,但在短期内会偏离长期均衡。当偏离均衡时,长期对短期偏离均衡的调整力度为59.8%;存在从农业研究与开发机构科技活动经费支出、农业技术人员到农业经济发展的单向格兰杰因果关系,而反向关系得不到实证支持。但农业机械总动力与农业经济发展之间存在显著的双向格兰杰因果关系。因此,增加农业科技活动经费支出、培养农业技术人才、提高农业机械利用效率是促进农业经济发展的重要路径选择。

Agricultural science and technology resources become an important factor in realizing ways of transaction of economic development of agriculture and sustainable development. The development of modern agriculture can not be separated from agricultural science and technology resources turn into real productive forces. This paper selected the statistical data from 1990 to 2008 in China, using co-integration analysis and Granger causality test on checking the relationship between the expenditures of scientific and technological activities in agricultural research and development agency, agricultural technicians, total power of agricultural machinery and economic development of agriculture, the empirical results show that ： There is a co-integration relationship, of a long-term stable equilibrium with little short-term deviation, between agricultural science and technology resources and economic development of agriculture, However,it maybe deviate the long-run equilibrium in the short term. When the deviation from equilibrium occurs, the adjustment of the long-term equilibrium to little short-term of the equilibrium is 59.8%. The result of Granger test signifies that there is a one-way Granger causality, from the expenditures of scientific and technological activities in agricultural research and development agency and agricultural technicians to economic development of agriculture, while there＇s no empirical evidence on the inverse relationship. However, there is a significant two-way Granger causality between the total power of agricultural machinery and agricultural economic development. Therefore, to promote the economic development of agriculture, it is important to increase funding for agricultural science and technology activities, train more agricultural technicians and improve the efficiency of agricultural machinery.