中国税收高速增长的源泉:税收能力和税收努力框架下的解释

What are the Sources of the Rapid Growth in Chinese Tax Revenues? An Explanation within the Framework of Tax Capacity and Tax Effort

在税收能力和税收努力的理论框架下,分析中国税收高速增长的源泉,可以发现,在分税制改革后,中国税收长时间高速增长的原因主要表现在三个方面:分税制的税收分权契约性质具有强烈的税收激励作用;间接税的制度设计放大了纳税人的纳税能力;我国正处于"税收增长红利"集中释放期。未来第一种因素的作用将减弱,第二种因素的作用部分消失,第三种因素的作用依旧存在。从长期看,由于税收增长红利仍将持续很长一段时期,税收仍可能保持较高速度的增长。

This paper adopts the theoretical framework of tax capacity and tax effort to analyze the source of rapid growth in tax revenues in China.After the tax-sharing reform,China's longstanding and rapid tax growth was mainly attributable to the following three factors:the strong stimulus of the contractual nature of the decentralization of powers in the tax-sharing system,increased tax capacity due to the institutional design of indirect taxes,and the fact that we are now in the middle of the concentrated release of a 'tax growth bonus.' The future will see a weakening role for the first factor,the partial disappearance of the second,and the survival of the third.For this reason,China's tax revenues will experience a certain falling back due to the influence of the economic cycle and especially the investment cycle.In the long run,however,China's tax take will continue to grow at a high speed because the tax-growth bonus will last for a long time.