中国CO_2排放总量控制区域分解方案研究

Scenario study on regional allocation of CO_2 emissions allowance in China

探讨CO2排放总量区域分解的方法.借鉴国际上针对国家之间的分解原则和方法,提出中国省际之间的分解的公平性、可行性和效率性三大原则;确定了排放水平、经济水平、工业能源利用水平、非化石能源利用水平4大影响因子;提出了人均排放量、人均GDP、工业增加值能耗、工业增加值能耗变化趋势、非化石能源占一次能源消费比例5个指标,构建了基于GIS平台的中国区域CO2排放分解模型CRBDM.根据2005年排放现状和参数选择,通过CRBDM模型计算提出中国2020年CO2排放总量省级分解方案.

A method for regional allocation of CO2 emissions allowance in China was proposed based on the burden sharing methods for CO2 emission between countries.Equity,feasibility and efficiency were identified as the basic principles for the allocation.Following the method,the GIS-based China Regional Burden Differentiation Model （CRBDM） was developed for regional allocation of CO2 emissions allowance in China,highlighting the four major impact factors （the emission level,the economical level,the industrial energy efficiency and the penetration of non-fossil fuel energy） and five major indicators （per capita emissions,per capita GDP,energy consumption per unit of value-added of industry and its trends and the ratio of non-fossil fuel to primary energy consumption）.Based on the CO2 emissions and profiles in 2005,a scenario analysis was conducted using CRBDM,and a scheme was proposed to allocate China＇s CO2 emissions allowance into province level in 2020.