宁夏财政支出结构变动对居民消费影响的动态分析

A Dynamic Analysis on the Effects of the Change Caused by the Structure of the Fiscal Expenditure on Residential Consumption

以代表性消费者的跨期替代理论模型为基础,利用1985—2006年的相关数据,对宁夏政府财政支出结构对居民消费的影响进行了实证检验.结果表明:长期来看,基础设施建设对居民消费有挤出作用,且挤出作用逐渐变弱;支农支出对居民消费起初有挤入作用,95年—98年大幅度变为挤出;科教文卫支出对居民消费始终起挤入作用;行政管理费用对居民消费呈现先挤出后挤入的作用;其它支出对居民消费的挤入挤出作用较小,随着时间的推移渐趋于零.研究结论为促进居民消费,合理调整政府财政支出结构提供了依据.

Based on a recursive model of representative agent, using datas of Ningxia from 1985 to 2006, the effects of the change caused by the structure of the fiscal expenditure on residential consumption are tested. The empirical results indicate differ- ent part of the fiscal expenditure has different effect on residential consumption in different times. The results provide a basis for advancing residential eomsumption and adjusting the structure of fiscal expenditure.