天津市流行性感冒与气象条件的关系研究

Relationship between Influenza and Meteorological Conditions in Tianjin

目的探讨天津市流行性感冒的季节性流行特征及其与气象条件的关系,确立主要气象因子在流感流行高峰期的临界指标并建立预测模型。方法对天津市地区2006—2009年的流感样病例比率及同期的温度、湿度、气压等主要气象要素的数据进行统计学分析,得出流感高峰与气象条件的关系。结果天津市的流感高峰季出现在冬季,当周平均温度处于-5～10℃、平均相对湿度60%～80%、平均气压1 020～1 040 hPa的天气条件下易出现流感高峰。结论天津市的流感流行状况符合我国北方地区流感的流行特点,与温度、湿度、气压等气象条件存在较好的时滞相关。

Objective To know the relationship between the seasonal feature of influenza and meteorological conditions in Tianjin, and to build the forecasting model. Methods Time lag correlation was conducted to analyze the relationship between ILI% （percentage of influenza-like illness ） and weather conditions such as temperature, humidity, air pressure. Results The pinnacle of influenza in Tianjin was seen in winter, especially under the circumstance of average temperature per week was -5- 10 ℃, relative humidity was 60%-80% and mean air pressure was 1 020-1 040 hPa. Conclusion The epidemic feature of influenza in Tianjin, with a significant time lag correlation between ILI% and weather conditions, is coincided with that in northern area in China.