中国各省区经济发展与碳排放脱钩关系研究

Analysing on the Decoupling Relationship Between Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Economic Growth of Each Province in China

哥本哈根大会以后,减排成为国际社会关注的焦点,因此深入研究并判断各省区经济增长与碳排放之间的脱钩关系有着重要的理论意义与现实意义。本文基于Tap io脱钩指标对1999-2008十年间各省区碳排放与经济增长之间的脱钩关系进行测度,结果显示近十年来我国绝大部分省区经济增长与碳排放之间呈现弱脱钩状态,经济增长速度大于碳排放增长速度,表明减排工作取得初步成效;在对脱钩弹性指标进行因果链分解后表明,工业领域能源利用效率的提高为碳排放增长速度的减缓起到了重要作用。尽管如此,我国未来面临的减排形势依然严峻:近年来工业产值在国民经济中的比重上升,经济结构的"重型化"趋势导致对能源的需求量增大,加上我国在新能源开发领域的不足,煤炭在总体能源消费结构中的主体地位进一步加强,单位能源消费产生的碳排放进一步上升,能源消费"高碳化"特征加剧,对以后的节能减排工作形成挑战,文章最后提出了开展减排的政策建议。

Pollutants reduction becomes the focus of international community after the Copenhagen Conference：therefore, analysis of decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth of each province in China is of great value. Tapio Decoupling Index is used in this paper to analyse the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth of each provinces from 1999 to 2008. The conclusion is that, in the last decade, the decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth of most provinces is in the state of weak decoupling,reflecting that the much work on energy saving and pollunants reduction had been paid off. After decomposing the decoupling index with the causal chain, the results show that the improvement of industrial energy efficiency plays an important role in the decrease of the acceleration for carbon emissions＇s speed . Though many much achievements have been made, we still have a long way to go on the road of pollutants reduction. Firstly, in recent years, the proportion of the industrial output in national economy has increased, the ＂heavy industry trend＂ of economic structure leads to an increased demand for energy. Secondly, due to the insufficient development of new energy in China, the main position of coal in energy consumption structure has been strengthened, resulting in the increasing carbon emissions caused by each unit of energy consumption. The ＂ high carbon＂ characteristics of energy consumption becomes a big challenge to future emission reduction. Finally, we put forward some advices on pollutants reduction.