中国木薯燃料乙醇原料供需现状和预测

Status and Forecast of Cassava Fuel Ethanol Feedstock Demand and Supply in China

木薯被我国认为是生产生物燃料乙醇最具潜力的原料之一,但国内生产是否满足现阶段燃料乙醇生产的需要,还存在疑问。本文综合分析了中国木薯原料供需现状与未来趋势,认为国内木薯生产平稳,未来将不会发生大的变化,具有对外依存度高,市场波动大,消费主要以木薯淀粉和木薯酒精为主等特点。随着中国淀粉、酒精及其深加工业的发展,国内市场对木薯及其加工品的需求将逐年增长,预测到未来中国木薯旺盛,国内生产难以满足要求。依靠国内供应生产木薯燃料乙醇的目标将难以实现,需要调整相关产业政策。

Cassava is considered as one of the most potential feedstock to produce biofuel ethanol in China.However,the domestic production of the cassava whether can meet current needs of fuel ethanol production is still in doubt.The paper comprehensively analyzed the status and forecast of cassava fuel ethanol feedstock demand and supply in China,it considered that domestic cassava production is stable and won＇t change much in the future,has high foreign dependence and market fluctuation,consumption is mainly starch and alcohol and so on.With the development of starch,alcohol and its deep processing industry,the domestic market demand for cassava and its processed production will grow year by year.The paper forecasted cassava demand will be exuberant in the future China;domestic production could not meet the requirements.Relying on domestic supply of cassava to produce fuel ethanol will be difficult to achieve,the government needs to adjust the relevant industrial policies.