摘要
为了将干旱这一自然灾害的研究引向深入,从干旱定义、干旱指数、干旱的监测与预测等方面,对国内外干旱研究进展进行了综述,分析了目前干旱研究存在的不足,指出干旱识别应做到定量化和客观化。通过干旱历史评估、实时监测和预测方面的理论研究和实践,提出了开展干旱监测及预测研究的主要发展方向,即应建立气象预报、水文模型、植被需水模型相结合的联合干旱预测模型。
In order to further study the problem of drought,we summarize the advancement of drought study at home and abroad in the aspects of drought definition,drought index,drought monitoring and prediction and analyze the deficiencies existing in the current study.It is pointed out that the identification of drought should be more quantitative and objective.Through introduction of the practice and concept study in historical evaluation,real-time monitoring and prediction of drought,we propose that the main developing direction of the study in drought monitoring and prediction should be the establishment of joint drought prediction model which combines weather forecast,hydrological model and water requirement model of vegetation.
出处
《人民长江》
北大核心
2011年第10期65-69,共5页
Yangtze River
关键词
干旱研究
干旱指数
干旱监测
干旱预测
drought study
drought index
drought monitoring
drought prediction
