国际初级产品分类价格对中国物价传导效应的实证研究

Empirical Analysis on the Effects of World Primary Commodity Classified Prices on Chinese Domestic Prices

本文基于2001年1月至2010年12月的月度数据,对国际初级产品分类价格对中国物价的传导效应进行了实证分析。结果表明:国际初级产品价格对国内物价的传导效应具有由短期波动到长期均衡的动态机制特征,其对PPI和CPI均具有显著的正向影响。各分类价格指数对国内物价的影响之间存在较大差异,燃料价格对国内物价的影响最大且持续时间最长,非燃料价格的影响较小且持续时间相对短。燃料价格和农业原材料价格对PPI的影响显著,燃料价格、农业原材料价格和食品价格对CPI的影响显著,其他子成分的影响力很弱。

This paper empirically studies the effects of world primary commodity classified prices on Chinese domestic prices based on monthly data during the period of 2001-2010.The conclusions show that world primary commodity classified prices are positively correlated to domestic prices with the dynamic mechanism of short-term fluctuations and long-term equilibrium.The effects of fuel and non-fuel prices on the domestic price are quite different,the former are stronger and longer,the latter are relatively weaker and shorter.The effects of agricultural raw materials and fuel prices on PPI are significant,the effects of agricultural raw materials,fuel and food prices on CPI are significant,effects of the other sub-components are weaker.