机械重大装备寿命预测综述

Review of Life Prediction for Mechanical Major Equipments

寿命预测理论是机械零件与装备安全服役的关键基础,也是现代机械设计与制造必须涵盖的重要方面。机械重大装备寿命预测技术对国民经济发展和国防建设具有重要意义。在过去近一个世纪与失效事故的斗争中,人类通过对诸如飞行器、舰船、车辆、发电机组等机械重大装备的研究,建立了基于力学的寿命预测理论、基于概率统计的寿命预测理论以及基于信息新技术的寿命预测理论等学科分支。针对机械重大装备寿命预测研究方法的特点和应用状况,综述国内外相关文献的研究现状,总结当前机械重大装备寿命预测研究的热点与成就,归纳当前机械重大装备寿命预测研究在理论建模与试验中存在的若干问题,分析机械重大装备寿命预测具有理论建模难、试验验证难以及数据积累分析难的特点,为今后进行深入的寿命预测研究提供可以借鉴的研究方向。

The theory of life prediction is the key foundation of safety service of the machine parts and equipment,and it is also an important aspect of modern mechanical design and manufacture.Life prediction for major mechanical equipment has great significance to national economic development and national defense construction.In the struggle against failure accidents through the past nearly a century,several scientific branches such as life prediction theories based on mechanics,probability statistics,and new information technology are founded through researches on the aerocraft,ship,vehicle,generator set and other major mechanical major equipment.Aiming at the characteristics and applications of life prediction techniques for major mechanical equipment,the current research status of relevant literature is reviewed,the current hotspots and achievements of life prediction research on major mechanical equipment are summed up,problems existing in theoretical modeling and experiments in life prediction research are summarized,the difficulties of theoretical modeling,experimental verification,and data accumulation/analysis in life prediction research for major mechanical equipment are analyzed,so as to point out a helpful direction for further research.