结构扭曲与中国货币之谜——基于转型经济金融抑制的视角

Economic Structure Distortion and China's Money Puzzle:A Financial Repression Perspective

转型经济中金融抑制的表现是对利率和汇率的管制。本文认为利率和汇率管制降低了持币成本,直接增加了货币需求,其导致的投资和对外经济结构扭曲则间接地增加了货币需求。中国的高货币速增长就是为了满足超额货币需求所致。我们利用中国1994年第1季度到2010年第2季度数据估计了M1和M2的真实余额需求的协整和误差修正方程。实证结果基本支持本文的金融抑制假说。在一个保守估计下,我们认为金融的抑制至少导致了现有的M2/GDP偏高30%。

The typical financial environment in the transition economy is financial repression, its biggest characteristics is interest rate control and exchange rate control. The authors propose that interest rate and exchange rate control decrease the cost of holding money and increase the money demand directly, and the resulting distortion of investment and foreign trade structure increases money demand indirectly. China＇s high money growth is resulted by meeting excess money demand. According to the definition of money, the paper uses China＇s 1994Q1-2010Q2 data to estimate the integration and error correcting model in the Engle-Granger two-step framework. The empirical results support the financial repression hypothesis. With the estimate result, the authors conclude that finarreial repression at least has increased the current M2/GDP by 30%.