投资与经济增长关系的动态研究——以黑龙江省为例

Research on Dynamic Relationship between Investment and Economic Growth——Taking Heilongjiang Province as Examples

为了研究黑龙江省投资水平与经济增长之间的关系,选取1995—2009年黑龙江省固定资产投资和地区生产总值数据作为样本。Granger因果关系检验结果表明,在5%显著性水平上。当滞后期为2—3时,黑龙江省历年实际固定资产投资水平和实际地区生产总值之间存在着双向的Granger因果关系。为反映二者之间的动态关系,构建了多项式分布滞后模型。估计结果表明,黑龙江省地区生产总值对固定资产投资的短期乘数为0.21,长期乘数约为0.70。

It selected the statistical data about total investment in fixed assets and gross domestic product from 1995 to 2009 as a sample in order to research the relationship between investment and economic growth in Hei- longjiang Province. With the Granger causality test, the results showed that there exits two-way Granger causality between investment and economic growth when the lags is 2 or 3 at the critical values of 5 % level. It constructed the polynomial distributed lags model which showed that the impact multiplier is 0.21 and the total distributed-lag multiplier is 0.70 that the gross domestic product acted on investment in Heilongjiang Province.